Rain chances Monday and Tuesday are capped near 20%. Thankfully, we’re expecting rain chances to drop to 30% Sunday which should kick off a drying trend. We’ll still have ample enough moisture to produce heavy rain and we could add maybe another inch of rain Friday and Saturday with locally higher totals. A few more waves of potentially locally heavy rain should move through but the rain chances that’ll kick off the weekend should be a bit more scattered and likely less widespread. Rainfall chances are unfortunately staying high both Friday and Saturday.
It’s important to note that it won’t rain continuously all day through Thursday since periodic dry time should be sprinkled in with the waves of heavy rain. There will likely be isolated instances of 7″ or even 8″ rainfall accumulations through Thursday. Tuesday’s expected rainfall totals from 1″ to 2″ will likely be repeated both on Wednesday and maybe even on Thursday in this area. For Bell, McLennan, eastern Coryell, and everywhere else east of I-35, continues waves of heavy rain will keep the rainfall totals high. Cities and towns near and west of Highway 281, including parts of Coryell, Lampasas, Bosque, Hamilton, Mills, and San Saba County, will have more scattered rain leading to lower rainfall totals likely only up to about 2″ through Thursday. What we are confident of is that the heaviest axis of rain Wednesday and Thursday will shift eastward. Just like how Tuesday’s afternoon storms dictate how things will unfold tonight, tonight’s storms will dictate what happens Wednesday with Wednesday’s storms influencing Thursday’s. Since rain is expected to move in a lot later than initially thought, the rain is expected to hang around this evening and into the night. Today’s severe weather risk is primarily for high wind gusts and hail but a stray and likely brief tornado is possible too. The expected slow moving nature of today’s storms means rainfall accumulation may quickly add up and road conditions may change rapidly. With that being said, the latest forecast data suggests that the next round of rain arrives late this afternoon into the night tonight.
Thanks to continued rounds already, the atmosphere is getting worked over so if we don’t see a ton of moisture return to the atmosphere after a round of storms moves through, it may delay when the next round of rain arrives. The forecast for the next 72 hours calls for a lot of rain, but there’s a ton of uncertainty about when these waves of rain will move through. Isolated higher rain totals between 8″ and near 10″ are possible mainly east of I-35. In addition to the threat of heavy rain, which is expected to lead to some flash flooding today, tomorrow, and maybe Thursday, we’re keeping an eye out for the potential of severe thunderstorms today and maybe tomorrow too. Unfortunately, the heaviest rounds of precipitation are on the way and we’re expecting another 2″ to 7″+ to fall, mostly over the next 72 hours. Central Texas has seen a few waves of showers and thunderstorms since Sunday and the rainfall totals over the last 48 hours have been as little as about a quarter-inch but has been as high as about 6″ in parts of Bell, Coryell, and Lampasas County.
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